Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Washington Wizards (30-35) visit Cream City for an 8 p.m. ET game with the Milwaukee Bucks (41-24) at Fiserv Forum Wednesday. Below, we analyze the Wizards-Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Washington has won three of its last four games and 11 of the past 13 while going 11-2 against the spread. The Wizards are the 10-seed in the Eastern Conference and have propelled into postseason play-in territory with their recent hot streak.

Milwaukee has won three straight games and four of its past five including back-to-back wins over the first-place Brooklyn Nets Sunday and Tuesday. The Bucks are third in the East and 3 games back of the Nets.

The Bucks won each of the first two meetings with the Wizards this season but each team has covered the spread once.

Wizards at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line : Wizards +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Bucks -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS : Wizards +3.5 (-110) | Bucks -3.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under : 243.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Wizards at Bucks: Key injuries

Wizards

  • None.

Bucks

  • Nothing affecting the betting odds.

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Wizards at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Wizards 122, Bucks 117

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Wizards (+135) because I "like" Washington plus the points but the Bucks are starting to play their best ball of the season down the stretch, hence two straight wins over the Nets.

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Against the spread (ATS)

BET the WIZARDS +3.5 (-110) for 1 unit.

Both the Bucks and the Wizards have a sub-.500 record against teams in the top 10 of net efficiency. Milwaukee has slightly better net efficiency, but Washington has performed better against expectations.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Wizards have the fifth-best spread differential against teams in the top-10 of net efficiency and the Bucks have the third-worst spread differential.

Also, the "reverse line movement" of this game is insane. According to Pregame.com, this game opened with Milwaukee laying 7 points and more money has been wagered on the Bucks to cover yet the line has been steamed down to Wizards +3.5 (-110).

How does that even make sense? Not to go all conspiracy theory but the only explanation for this line movement is bookmakers want more pro-Bucks money. Typically, sports bettors don't want to play into the House's hands.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a "lean" to the Under 243.5 (-105) based on the simple logic this total is too high and the market is barreling into the Over.

What keeps my money in the wallet is the past seven Wizards-Bucks games have gone Over the total and both teams play at a top-3 pace.

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