But the system is expected to encounter increasing wind shear, which could limit its growth.
Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical disturbance over the Bahamas have become better organized today and forecasters say a tropical depression could form.
The area of low pressure, which now has a 60 percent chance of developing over the next 48 hours, is moving northwest at 15 mph.
While the system, which would be named Chantal if it earns tropical storm status, is heading into wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, it is expected to run into a front moving in from the north that could tease up some strong storms Tuesday and Wednesday.
“Regardless of development, the increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be accompanied by higher potential for frequent lightning, heavy rains capably of localized flooding and strong wind gusts,” National Weather Service meteorologists in Miami wrote in a morning forecast.
“The greatest chance for strong convective wind gusts will be on Tuesday and Wednesday.”
Aside from Hurricane Barry, the tropical Atlantic has been mostly quiet since the start of storm season June 1.
Whether a shift in the El Nino forecast announced last week changes that remains to be seen.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Nino may be gone by the end of the summer with a rapid transition to a neutral atmosphere. That means the storm killing wind shear El Nino provides would be weakening just as peak hurricane season ramps up.
Typically, El Nino reduces Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear.
El Nino is forecast to transition to ENSO Neutral by late summer and remain neutral through fall and winter. This may impact the number of tropical storms or hurricanes. El Nino causes strong upper level winds that can prevent tropical development.
The disturbance is no threat to the Northwest Florida area at this time.