8 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center

A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm, Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon.

In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

 

2 p.m. UPDATE - National Hurricane Center

The low pressure sytem has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico, accroding to the Natiopnal Hurricane Center.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress.

The Okaloosa County Emergency Management Chief released this message to the public:

"We should expect heavy rain, coastal flooding and rip currents. Landfall is currently projected to occur in Southwest Louisiana on Saturday evening, but may occur as far west as Texas, potentially reaching hurricane strength. Although this update bodes well for Okaloosa County, please remember that THESE SYSTEMS ARE DYNAMIC IN NATURE AND DONT ALWAYS PLAY BY THE RULES. We will continue to monitor and provide updates as we receive them. Please continue to make preparations to experience tropical storm/hurricane conditions in the event the storm deviates from the current predicted path."

9 a.m.

A broad low pressure system located over the eastern Florida Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Once the system is over water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.

The chance of development over the next two days is 50%, according to the National Hurricane Center. The formation chance increases to 80% over the next five days.